Monday, November 07, 2016
Markets Love Hillary
As soon as FBI director Comey told Congress on Sunday that Hillary Clinton should face no charges over her handling of classified information, U.S. stock futures exploded higher.
Morgan Stanley Research (MSR) Prediction
MSR predicts, with a 49% probability, a Clinton victory along with a Democratic Senate and Republican House. Should that happen, MSR lists what they believe will be possible policy changes along with key stock sectors that may underperform our outperform. Food for thought.
BMO Investment Strategy Group, shows the historical performance of US Stocks since 1900 based on different combinations of President / Senate / House – looks like we are in favor of a DRR, Democratic President, Republican Senate and Republican House. That happened only once since 1900, with an average annual return of 28.8% per year in the first 2 years of the presidential term. But, if Morgan Stanley is right, we will get a DDR, which has happened twice since 1900, with average annual return of 7.5% per year in the first 2 years of the presidential term.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Note: R: Republican, D: Democrat.
Source: BMO Investment Strategy Group
We prefer investing with the trends instead of making predictions and then investing based on those predictions. Investing based on forecasts is very challenging. You not only have to get the prediction correct, you also have to make the correct prediction on how markets will react to your forecast.
Currently, the trends are intact so we will stay invested.