Wednesday, November 14, 2018
Pre-Election Year 2019
Historically the pre-election year (2019 coming up) has been the best of the 4 year presidential term for the stock market.
Every year since 1939 the stock market has been up in the pre-election year.
Here is a table of all the election years since 1939 and the annual returns for the S&P 500 index.
The median annual return for the pre-election years 1943-2015 was 22.56%.
Below is a chart of the S&P 500 index along with buy (up green arrow) & sell signals (down red arrow) using one of our long-term trend following trading strategies.
The current signal is a HOLD, we therefore recommend that clients stay the course and hold stocks. If you are concerned with the recent market volatility, call us 800-578-3181x0.
We will alert you by email if this strategy flashes a SELL signal.
Had we deployed this specific strategy since November 30, 1993, the results would be as follows:
S&P 500 Index
BACKTEST DISCLOSURES – IMPORTANT PLEASE READ
According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
The performance information presented represent backtested performance based on combined simulated index data results from November 30, 1993 to November 13, 2018, using a trend following strategy. Backtested performance is hypothetical (it does not reflect trading in actual accounts) and is provided for informational purposes only to indicate historical performance had the index portfolios been available over the relevant time period. Index portfolios are designed to provide substantial global diversification in order to reduce investment concentration and the resulting potential increased risk caused by the volatility of individual companies, indexes, or asset classes.
Backtested performance attempts to indicate how a product constructed with the benefit of hindsight would have performed during a certain period in the past if the product had been in existence during such time.
Trading frictions may not be negligible.
The backtesting methodology introduces data snooping bias such that the best-performing strategy incorporates some luck and tends to overstate out-of-sample expectations.
Actual results may significantly differ from the backtested returns being presented.
Backtested results have not taken deductions for investment management, account advisory fees, trading costs, or other fees or charges.
Backtested performance is constructed with the benefit of hindsight, including the ability to adjust the method for selecting securities until returns for the past period are maximized.
Investing always has the possibility of loss.