How We Manage Our Model Portfolios
Dow Jones Industrial Average 1900 - 2012
November 21, 2018 10:48 AM
As of this time, here are the numbers:
Fortunately, we hold a very small percentage in foreign stocks in our model portfolios. Why? Simple -- because they have not been trending well..
Historically, as you can see from the 1st table above – a 10%+ correction in U.S. large capitalized companies happens on average once every year.
How we manage our model portfolios
For Model Portfolios That Are Constructed with Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
We Use Technical Analysis only.
ETFs are managed strictly from a Trend Perspective using our proprietary trend following strategies.
We guide our decisions based on trends of the ETFs, not on economic forecasts or fundamentals or any other methodology.
For Model Portfolios That Are Constructed Using Individual Stocks
We Use Both Technical and Fundamental Analysis
We use a combination of Trend of the Stock + The Fair Value of the Company based on discounted cash flow models.
Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE:C) is currently a SELL using our long-trend trend following model. However, our estimate of Fair Market Value (FMV) per share, based on a discounted cash flow valuation model, is $75-$78 per share. Since Citigroup is trading at approx.. $63 per share, it is, in our opinion undervalued by $12-15 per share. Therefore, we will hold the stock, despite the stock not currently trending well.
What we are doing now?
We are selling positions that have triggered sell signals.
We will buy positions that meet our fundamental and technical analysis criteria.
Are you concerned?
Call us 1-800-578-3181x0